The NFL Picks Page Bulletin Board
|Welcome to the NFL Picks Page Bulletin Board!|
You can post messages for other users to read and respond to -- even a little trash talking if you like.
can u send me your address so I can u the money
|I'm in again mark .will send check this week|
entery fee being mailed in today for silverarmy and me
|Mark, I am in for the club again this year. Send check next week.|
|Thanks for the clarification.|
|Tie breaker is the B-Man's point system on the spread picks side of the site. Here's how it works. You get +2 points per win and -1 points per loss. If you don't pick a game you get a loss for that game unless you don't pick any games that week. Pick 1 game and none of the others in a 16-game week and you go 1-15 that week, netting you +2 -15 = -13 net points that week. Pick no games that week and you get 0 net points. The smart thing is to pick all games every week since you have to be really bad to get negative points. Mathematically speaking, I believe 5.33 - 10.67 would be the break even point (0 net points) in a 16-game week. In other words, 5-11 record = -1 net points, but 6-10 record = +2 net points.|
|Thanks Mark, think I might join but just one clarification on rule 7 is it a win % of the picks you like or does one have to pick all the weeks games, and then its that number?|
|Open to all, Dogs Rule.|
|I had no idea I won the booby prize. But I am in again.|
|Just joined, but have been looking at this site since last year. Great site, and thankyou for letting me join. Is the lock club open to new people at this site?|
|Eugenius is paid up already for this year.|
B-Man, I have you covered, too, as part of my annual contribution to help offset server costs.
kirby.com, I never paid you your 37.50 booby prize for last year, so you only owe 37.50 if you choose to play this year.
|For those interested in the Lock Club, which is now going into its umpteenth year without major controversy:|
Here are the official rules:
1) You must be 18 or older to enter.
2) Entry fee is $75.00 in US Dollars drawn on a US Bank. Don't send a check for funds drawn on a bank outside the US. DON'T FORGET TO WRITE YOUR USERNAME ON YOUR CHECK SO I'LL KNOW WHO YOU ARE. Contact me via e-mail and we'll see if we can make other arrangements if cannot do the above.
3) We will distribute winnings to the top 3 players at 60%, 25%, and 15% of the total, less the amount deducted to pay the booby prize (the current entry fee as provided for in rule 2), which goes to the last place finisher. The booby prize is removed from the pool first, and then the remainder is divvied up according to the above percentages. 100% of all entry fees are distributed to the top 3 players and to the booby prize last place finisher. Neither I nor the b-man takes any profits off the top or bottom or anywhere in between. All funds taken in are redistributed to the winners. There is no "vig". Take note that the no-pick losses, provided for in rule 6, will count as wins for the purposes of the booby prize. Bonus wins, as provided for in rule 5, will *not* count as wins for the purposes of the booby prize. There
will be no tie-breaker for the purposes of the booby prize; the booby prize will be divided evenly among all last-place finishers.
4) Each player makes 1 pick per week for each week of the regular season and each week of the playoffs, including the Superbowl game itself. The picks are against the spread using b-man's lines. You may also select an Over/Under pick based on the lines I will post on the board usually on Fridays. Should I forget to do so, you can use the lines from usatoday.com's odds page. Don't try to use any obviously invalid lines, not that anybody ever would do that.
5) There are 2 bonus picks -- an Upset of the Year Pick and a Superbowl Bonus Pick. The Upset pick must be an underdog in a game where the favorite is favored by the b-man by at least 7.5 or more points. The underdog must win straight up. The Superbowl Bonus Pick is made AFTER WEEK 17 once the playoff seedings are announced. You may revise your Superbowl Bonus Pick at any time or as many times as you like up to kickoff of the first playoff game. You must pick the eventual Superbowl winner straight up. You do not get a loss added to your record if you miss either or both of the bonus picks.
6) Each pick each week must be made here on this bulletin board before kickoff of that game. You can wait until before kickoff of the Monday Night game and pick that game if you like. If you don't make a pick for a week, you automatically get a loss for that week. You must abide by the b-man's rules for all of your posts. If b-man kicks you off the site because you can't follow his rules, you will be forfeiting your entry fee and it will *not* be refunded to you.
7) In the event of a tie in the records of 2 or more players, the tie breaker will be the overall ranking in the against the spread picks on this site for the year using b-man's point system. Be sure to submit your against the spread picks each week during the season since we can't use the straight up records for the tie-breaker. If there is still a tie, the money, if any, will be distributed evenly among those players.
8) I will be keeping track of the records for the Lock Club. If you disagree with my scoring or any other decision, simply post your disagreement. We will vote democratically on the issue. Majority rules. If the vote falls 50/50, my original decision will stand.
9) You may change your mind about your pick any time before kickoff of the game you eventually pick. You may not change a pick after kickoff of that game, however. It is legal to adjust your pick based upon what another player has done for strategic purposes, but you must specify a team for your pick. You cannot say
"I'll take the opposite of whatever so and so takes." You must name your team with your pick. Likewise, it is also okay to switch your pick at the last minute if you suspect another player is shadowing your picks, but you must make any switches before kickoff of the game you select. All games are assumed to have kicked off at their officially scheduled kickoff time, but in case of controversy we can the official kickoff time via the gamebook at nfl.com. All picks are assumed to have been
made at the date and time stamped on each post by the b-man's bulletin board software, which might or might not necessarily be perfectly in synchronization with the official time used by the NFL. The moral: don't wait until the last second to get your pick in.
10) To join the Lock Club, you must post your intentions to join here on this board. You must get your pick in for Week 1 here on this board. You must get your check in to me and it must be postmarked by no later than the deadline for making your pick for Week 2. Should you miss week 1 and still wish to join, you may join,
but you will get a loss for the missed week 1 pick. Mailing address is:
PO Box 82
Melville, LA 71353-0082
11) To make it easier for me and so I don't miss your selection, please put all picks in BOLD lettering using the and HTML tags. Also, don't say something like "The Saints will whip the Chargers this week." Say, instead, something like "I'll take the Saints as my Lock Of The Week." I can read minds, but I'm not very good at it. So, make your pick as unambiguous as possible.
12) A player may elect to buy up to, but not more than, 2 slots in the Lock Club. He must create a new username on this site and submit the 2nd slot picks under that new username. Tie-breaker for that new username will be that new username's overall standings on this site, so be sure to submit picks each week under the new username, too.
|Come join the B-Man and myself in the 5th year of my Mock Hilton contest. It's run exactly like the real Westgate/Hilton contest. Entry fee is $50.00. Email me for details on this great contest. |
5 picks a week for 17 weeks against the spread.
For details: firstname.lastname@example.org
I'm writing checks for footballs pools. What is the address and how much $$$?
|Good to see we are ready to go. My two favorite times of the year. Football and deer season. |
How much for the Lock Club this year?
|Thanks B-Man! As usual, a great and well managed site. Looking forward to this season again! |
|The site's all reset and ready to go. Good luck gentlemen!|
|Let's get this season going|
|Eugenius is paid up for next year.|
Some of the same points I had on the call.
|Mark, got the check tonight...thanks again and see you in September!|
|Ron you are right on the money! One of the puzzling things was that a lot of the yards gained on the way to the seven were Kapernick running , so why not give him a shot from the red zone?|
And the next year in Seattle the same thing happened when the Niners entered the red zone with 3 timeouts and Kapernick throws into double coverage and gets picked on first down.
Seattle goes on to smoke Denver and one could argue that S.F. could have won back to back Super Bowls.
|Payments are on the way except for kirby.com, whom I haven't heard from yet on a mailing address. I made one correction. SilverArmy gets $180 instead of $120 for 3rd place. I'm using a new billpayer service from my bank, so I'm not sure if there might be a delay. The date shown is 2/11/2015, but if that's the date you can expect the check or the date it gets mailed, I'm not sure.|
|I feel the pain. Only 2 years ago with the Ravens leading late in the game, 34–29, the 49ers advanced to the Baltimore 7-yard line just before the 2 minute warning|
After a 3 yard run on 1st down, they elected to throw on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down. All the exact same throw to the exact same receiver.
No runs. No bootleg from Kaepernick. Oh god, why?
|There was the risk of the interception when calling the passing play, but that would be balanced against the risk of Lynch fumbling. Lynch had 4 fumbles in 280 attempts (0.14 fumbles per attempt) compared to Wilson's 7 INT's in 452 passing attempts (0.15 INT's per pass attempt) in the 2014 regular season. There was the risk of offensive holding, but that happens on running plays, too. Speaking of holding penalties, any penalty results in lost time since the clock doesn't get reset just because the down gets replayed. Even more reason to try to preserve that last timeout.|
I'm not saying calling the pass play was the smart thing to do, I'm just saying the criticism is too extreme. There were valid reasons for attempting the strategy that was used. If this had happened in the 1st quarter I don't think anybody would even be talking about it, at least not so much from the angle of it being such a dumb play call.
|Mean Mark: I couldn't disagree more with the play call. I think it's laughable for Carroll to suggest that it was essentially wasting a play or time off the clock. I do agree that you should not weigh the decision on the results and that it's human nature to do that and then pile on.|
In this case, though, you have a strong case that it was simply a bad decision before they even snapped the ball -- given the probabilities of success and the risks for his different options. Carroll chose to run a pass play -- bringing into play a sack, sack/fumble, interception, offensive penalty for holding/pass interference, all sorts of bad things. Not only that, but the play that was called went to a receiver that had caught 11 passes all season. I'm not surprised that he made a weak attempt to catch the pass in that pressure situation and the DB was able to fight thru him for the interception.
Now compare that to the main option everyone in the stadium and watching on TV expected Carroll to go to -- run Lynch again. You say he failed to score on the previous play. He gained 4 YARDS on the previous play and was stopped at the 1. At that point, he could practically spin once and fall forward and likely score. He averaged over 4 yards a carry for the game and had already scored from the 3 yd line in the first half.
What do people always say when the game is on the line? You go with your best players, put the ball in their hands, go with what got you there. That works. The Seahawks should have tried it. Worst case, you get stopped, maybe lose a few yards, take your timeout, then try 2 more pass plays to score -- and if you lose, you lose knowing you took your best shot to win and the Patriots were simply better. Instead, you lost and you feel like you gave it away and didn't take the easy shot to win.
I agree also that Wilson deserves more blame for throwing the pick (and eyeballing the receiver the whole way). But I think Carroll deserves all the crap he is, admittedly, accepting for the play call.
|I think the criticism of Pete Carroll about the decision to pass instead of run has been way over the top. Would running Lynch have been a better move? Probably so, but he was trying to get 3 more plays in with just :26 seconds left. A quick pass into the endzone on 2nd down would preserve the final timeout and leave additional options open on 3rd and 4th downs.|
The fact the play didn't work means nothing as to the merits of the decision in the first place. It's human nature to judge the decision based on the results, which is usually a good thing, but in this case I think it leads us astray. Blame the poor execution and credit the defense for making the play rather than blaming the play call itself.
Remember, they had run Lynch on 1st down, and he had failed to get in. Furthermore, they had run Lynch on 1-yard to go situations earlier in the year and he was something like 0 for 5 in those situations.
I actually respect Carroll more now for trying to take the heat for the decision and taking some of it off his quarterback, but the reality is Wilson threw the pick, not Carroll.
|Seahawk Fans LOL|
|Seahawk Fans LOL|
|What an entertaining game last night!|
I just wanted to say thank you Mark for another great season and The B-Man for cool website!!
Mark, appreciate your work every week and can't wait for next year.
YTD: 159-175-1 (.476)
Today's color scheme honors the New England Patriots, whose team colors we are using today are NAUTICAL BLUE and NEW CENTURY SILVER.
Congrats to the Patriots for winning another Superbowl and congrats to the winners of the Lock Club:
1) UnderDawgz = $720
2) Eugenius = $300
3) SilverArmy = $120
Booby Prize = $75 to be split evenly between Mean Mark and kirby.com ($37.50 each). Hate to admit it, but I honestly tried to pick a win every week, even to the last.
To the winners: e-mail me (mwgansonAThotmail) your current mailing addresses so I can know where to send your payments. I'll try to get them out on Friday. That will give me a chance to make any necessary corrections to the standings before sending them out. If I made a mistake in the standings I need to know about it before Friday, or else if it cost you money you'll need to try to collect from the other players once I've mailed out the checks.
|oh dam, Mark ya beat me. lol|
|I forgot to make my spread pick. SOB|
|Lock Pick: Seattle|
|Lock Pick Under 49|
|LOCK PICK SEAHAWKS|
|B-Man's Lock of the Week: Seattle for the repeat|
Good luck fellas! And have a blast, Drew Bledsoe #11. I can imagine that is a dream come true. Glad to know you are still playing on the site.
|LOCK PICK PATRIOTS|
|Lock Pick - Patriots|
|Go to Page:||Next 40 Msgs|